Weak U.S. economic data + escalating trade policies, copper prices show obvious short-term support [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM, June 3: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,604.5/mt. After fluctuating considerably to reach an intraday low, it surged straight up to a high of $9,636.5/mt, before fluctuating downward. Near the close, it dipped to $9,578/mt and eventually closed at $9,615/mt, up 1.24%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest reached 286,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE copper was closed. On the macro side, data showed that the US manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month in May, putting pressure on the US dollar index and pushing it to a nearly six-week low, which was bullish for copper prices. Additionally, Trump indicated late last Friday that he plans to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% starting Wednesday, and hopes that countries will present their best offers for trade negotiations before Wednesday. Currently, US officials are attempting to accelerate negotiations with multiple trading partners before the end of the self-imposed five-week suspension period. Under the pressure of tariff threats, the US dollar is under pressure, which is bullish for copper prices. On the fundamental side, from the supply side, last Friday was the last trading day of May. Most enterprises halted trading, with fewer shippers, leading to a temporary tightening of spot supply in the market and pushing spot quotes higher. From the demand side, there were still some downstream enterprises making just-in-time procurement, but they were forced to accept the high premiums, resulting in relatively passive overall procurement behavior, with no significant improvement in purchasing sentiment. In terms of prices, copper prices are expected to remain supported today.